Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
