Just two months ago when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as his coach scolded him for missing a penetrating pass. During that period, with the team endured a six-game winless run, the question was if Rogers' form were an indicator or the reason for Villa's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, though, the sideline response was much more joyous. After Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his jacket, spread his arms and bellowed. The team marched on to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win their opening six games, now sit a mere three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Hopefuls?
It remains a rather hard query to resolve. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they have not been entirely convincing this season, while the positive results have piled up.
As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team which has just won ten consecutive victories, they seem strangely fragile – but right now the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy looks like to exchange chances with rivals before hoping Rogers to save the day with two precise efforts. This occurred away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and once more when facing United.
His opener originated from a superb shot, arced just inside the post from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents managed more shots and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling the ball into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Could it be an alternative path whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures may yet return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins could start scoring again.
- The winger could transform into the performer he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are set to return from injury, fortifying a sometimes shaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And certainly two months ago, few could imagine Rogers now would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial player for the national team.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner stood in front of the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
